The Future of Folding Cartons to 2030

Table of Contents Key Facts and Figures

Almost 57 million tonnes of cartonboard material were produced globally during 2024, reflecting an increase of more than 6% from the previous year
The value of the market in 2024 is estimated at just under $60 billion, indicating a 9.5% growth in value over 2023.

During 2024, total actual consumption of folding carton packaging amounted to just over 50 million tonnes, worth an estimated $180 billion, and reflecting a volume growth of almost 5% over the 2023 tonnage.
The market is influenced by major economic shifts including GDP growth, household consumption expenditure, population trends, and urbanisation, among others. Technologically, the market is being influenced further, with sustainability undoubtedly being one of the main trends.

Folding cartons are a form of paperboard-based packaging that is folded and closed to keep products contained. It is made up of different grades of paper, and different flutes and has applications in both food and beverage and non-food applications

Key Questions

What role can folding cartons play in the changing sustainable packaging landscape?
Where will the folding cartons market show largest growth over the next 5 years?
How will the market be affected by incoming legislation?
Which areas will struggle to adapt to the changing market landscape?

Hear from the Author

Stephen Harrod stated: “The market is concentrated, with the five biggest producers accounting for over a quarter of the total volume of production in 2024, and the top ten making up almost 40% of the total volume.”

Stephen Harrod spent 11 years building a market research company in South Africa, focused on the paper and packaging industry in that country, following which he spent six years in the paper industry with Mondi and JAC Labels before relocating to the UK. He has been authoring reports for Smithers since 2006, with a focus on global paper and packaging markets

This report is essential to

Packaging raw material suppliers
Packaging converters and manufacturers
Retailers and brand owners

Name The Future of Folding Cartons to 2030

Date 30/06/2025

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More Resources

Executive summary
Introduction and methodology

Introduction
Objectives
Scope
Methodology
Definitions
Changes from previous editions

Market drivers and trends, 2020–30

Introduction
The global cartonboard industry
- Production
- Major producers
- Trade
- Apparent consumption
The global folding carton industry
- Conversion
- Major converters
- Trade
- Actual consumption
Key issues and trends facing the industry
- Global economic influences
  - Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
  - Household consumption expenditure (HCE)
  - Population
  - Urbanisation
- Demographic trends
  - Smaller households and family units
  - Smaller unit packaging
  - Internet and e-commerce
- Retail trends
  - Market size
  - Future prospects
  - Leading players
  - Push for environmental sustainability in folding carton grades
  - Capacity changes in the world supply of folding carton materials
  - Growth in demand for luxury packaging and penetration of premium paperboard grades
  - Legislation and regulation
  - European regulations
  - US Regulations

Technology forecasts

Introduction
Summary
Lightweighting of paperboard grades
Emergence of ‘smart’ packaging
Digital Product Passports (DPP)
Penetration of digital printing
Personalisation and customisation
Anti-counterfeit and security packaging
Evolution of functional and barrier coatings
Sustainable packaging – market opportunities for folding cartons to 2030
Introduction
Sustainable packaging defined
Selected opportunities for folding cartons
- Food and beverage applications
- Non-food applications

Folding cartons by cartonboard grade, 2020–30

Introduction
Virgin versus recycled material
Consumption by print process
Consumption by construction format
Overview of trends in grade production
- Solid bleached board/sulphate (SBB/S)
- Solid unbleached board/sulphate (SUB/S)
- Folding boxboard (FBB)
- Coated recycled board (CRB)/white-lined chipboard (WLC)
- Uncoated recycled board (URB)

Historical, current and forecast market sizes, 2020–30
Introduction

Global markets for cartonboard
- Apparent consumption
Global markets for folding cartons and microflute
- Actual consumption
End-use markets for folding cartons
- Overview
- Food
  - Fresh food
  - Frozen food
  - Chilled food
  - Dry foods
  - Baked products
  - Savoury snacks
  - Dairy products
  - Confectionery
  - Preserved foods
  - Baby food
  - Dry beverages
  - Foodservice
  - Other food
  - Pet food
- Drinks
  - Soft drinks
  - Alcoholic drinks
- Non-food
  - Healthcare
  - Personal care
  - Tobacco
  - Household care
  - Paper products
  - Hardware and electrical
  - Other non-foods

Geographic markets for folding cartons

Introduction
Global rankings
- Volume
- Value
- Compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
- Volume per capita
North America
- US
- Canada
- Mexico
South and Central America
- Brazil
- Other South and Central America
Western Europe
- France
- Germany
- Italy
- Spain
- UK
- Other Western Europe
Eastern Europe
- Poland
- Russia
- Other Eastern Europe
Middle East
- Turkiye
- Other Middle East
Africa
Asia
- China
- India
- Japan
- Other Asia
Australasia

Figures

Global cartonboard production by region in 2024
Global cartonboard conversion by region in 2024
Anticipated growth in consumption volume for folding cartons by region, 2024–25 and 2025–30, annual % change
Top ten end user sectors of folding carton packs 2024
Anticipated growth in consumption volume for folding cartons by end use, 2024–25 and 2025–30, annual % change
Household consumption expenditure, CAGR%, 1982–2022
Global retail e-commerce sales growth, 2017–27, AGR%
Global retail sales, 2021–27, $ trillion

Tables

Technology impact table
Exchange rates to the US dollar ($), 2020–24
Global cartonboard production, 2020 to 2024, volume and value , by sector, region and country, ‘000 tonnes and $ million
Major producers of cartonboard, 2024, volume and value, global, in order by volume
Global trade in cartonboard, exports, 2020 to 2024, volume and value, ‘000 tonnes and $ million
Global trade in cartonboard, imports, 2020 to 2024, volume and value, ‘000 tonnes and $ million
Global apparent consumption of cartonboard, 2020–24, volume and value, by sector, region and country, ‘000 tonnes and $ million
Global cartonboard conversion, 2020 to 2024, volume and value, by sector, region and country, ‘000 tonnes and $ million
Major global converters of cartonboard, 2024, volume and value
Major global converters of folding cartons only, 2024, volume and value
Major global converters of microflute only, 2024, volume and value
Global trade in folding cartons, exports, 2020 to 2024, volume and value, ‘000 tonnes and $ million
Global trade in folding cartons, imports, 2020 to 2024, volume and value, ‘000 tonnes and $ million
Global actual consumption of folding carton, 2020 to 2024, volume and value, by sector, region and country, ‘000 tonnes and $ million
Historic and forecast real growth in GDP, 2020–2030, %AGR
Household consumption expenditure, major countries, CAGR/AGR%
Global population, 2020 to 2030, millions
Urbanisation, % of population, selected countries, 2000–2030
Major players in grocery retailing, 2023
Capacity changes, 2022 to 2024
Capacity changes by board grade, 2022 to 2024 (‘000 tonnes)
New paper machine installations, 2022 to 2024 (‘000 tonnes)
Rebuilds, upgrades and grade switches, 2022 to 2024 (‘000 tonnes)
Shutdowns, 2022 to 2024 (‘000 tonnes)
Technology impact table
Market share of virgin material, 2020 to 2030, % of total volume
Historic and forecast actual consumption volume of folding cartons, 2020–30, by print process, ‘000 tonnes
Historic and forecast actual consumption volume of folding cartons, 2020–30, by construction format, ‘000 tonnes
Actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2024, according to construction format, by region and country (‘000 tonnes) and $ million
Historic and forecast production volume and value of cartonboard, 2020–30, by grade, ‘000 tonnes and $ million
Historic and forecast production volume and value of solid bleached board/sulphate (SBB/S), 2020–30, by sector, region and country, ‘000 tonnes and $ million
Historic and forecast production volume and value of solid unbleached board/sulphate (SUB/S), 2020–30, by sector, region and country, ‘000 tonnes and $ million
Historic and forecast production volume and value of folding boxboard (FBB), 2020–30, by sector, region, and country, ‘000 tonnes and $ million
Historic and forecast production volume and value of coated recycled board (CRB)/white-lined chipboard (WLC), 2020–30, by sector, region and country, ‘000 tonnes and $ million
Historic and forecast production volume and value of uncoated recycled board (URB), 2020–30, by sector, region and country, ‘000 tonnes and $ million
Historic and forecast apparent consumption volume and value of cartonboard packaging, 2020–30, by sector, region and country, ‘000 tonnes and $ million
Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, by sector, region and country, ‘000 tonnes and $ million

For each end-use sector:

Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, ‘000 tonnes and $ million
Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025–30

List of end-use sectors:

Food
Fresh food
Frozen food
Chilled food
Dry food
Baked foods
Savoury snacks
Dair products
Confectionery
Preserved foods
Baby food
Dry beverages
Foodservice
Other food
Pet food
Drinks
Soft drinks
Beer and cider
Wine
Spirits and other alcohol
Non-food
Healthcare
Personal care
Tobacco
Household care
Paper products
Hardware and electrical
Other non-foods
- Global ranking of countries by volume and value of cartonboard packaging consumption, 2024
- Global ranking of countries by compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of cartonboard packaging volume consumption, CAGR % 2025–30
- Global ranking of countries by volume per capita of cartonboard packaging consumption, 2024, kg/person
- North America: Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
- North America: Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
- North America: Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, ‘000 tonnes and $ million, by end-use sector
- North America: Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025–30, by end-use sector

For each country:

Key facts
Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, ‘000 tonnes and $ million (and local currency), by end-use sector
Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025–30, by end-use sector

List of countries:

US
Canada
Mexico
South and Central America: Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
South and Central America: Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
South and Central America: Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, ‘000 tonnes and $ million, by end-use sector
South and Central America: Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025–30, by end-use sector

For each country:

Key facts
Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, ‘000 tonnes and $ million (and local currency), by end-use sector
Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025–30, by end-use sector

List of countries:

Brazil
Other South and Central America
Western Europe: Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
Western Europe: Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
Western Europe: Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, ‘000 tonnes and $ million, by end-use sector

For each country:

Key facts
Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, ‘000 tonnes and $ million (and local currency), by end-use sector
Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025–30, by end-use sector

List of countries:

France
Germany
Italy
Spain
UK
Other Western Europe
Eastern Europe: Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
Eastern Europe: Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
Eastern Europe: Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, ‘000 tonnes and $ million, by end-use sector
Eastern Europe: Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025–30, by end-use sector

For each country:

Key facts
Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, ‘000 tonnes and $ million (and local currency), by end-use sector
Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025–30, by end-use sector

List of countries:

Poland
Russia
Other Eastern Europe
Middle East: Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
Middle East: Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, ‘000 tonnes and $ million, by end-use sector
Middle East: Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025–30, by end-use sector

For each country:

Key facts
Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, ‘000 tonnes and $ million (and local currency), by end-use sector
Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025–30, by end-use sector

List of countries:

Turkiye
Other Middle East
Africa: Key facts
Africa: Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
Africa: Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, ‘000 tonnes and $ million, by end-use sector
Africa: Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025–30, by end-use sector
Asia: Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
Asia: Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
Asia: Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, ‘000 tonnes and $ million, by end-use sector
Asia: Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025–30, by end-use sector

For each country:

Key facts
Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, ‘000 tonnes and $ million (and local currency), by end-use sector
Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025–30, by end-use sector

List of countries:

China
India
Japan
Other Asia
Australasia: Key facts
Australasia: Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
Australasia: Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, ‘000 tonnes and $ million, by end-use sector
Australasia: Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025–30, by end-use sector